José Serra’s key rival bowed out his party’s presidential race.
By JOHN LYONS - The Wall Stree Journal
SÃO PAULO, Brazil — The shape of Brazil’s next presidential race became clearer, with a powerful state governor emerging as the key challenger to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s handpicked successor.
Brazilian politician José Serra, a U.S.-trained economist who draws support from the nation’s middle class and business elite, all but snared his pro-business Social Democrat party’s nomination Thursday when a key rival bowed out.
Mr. da Silva’s shadow promises to hang over the country’s October presidential election. Mr. Serra, who lost to Mr. da Silva in the nation’s landmark 2002 elections, is expected to face off against Dilma Rousseff, a former left-wing guerrilla and Mr. da Silva’s taciturn chief of staff.
There are reasons to think Mr. Serra’s chances may have improved, in large part because he won’t be facing the popular Mr. da Silva, who isn’t eligible for a third term.
Mr. Serra, a 67-year-old former health minister who pushed a policy of breaking patents on AIDS drugs to lower costs, is now governor of São Paulo state. There, he has overseen a drop in the crime rate and pushed new highway projects. Recent polls show Mr. Serra would likely defeat Ms. Rousseff by as many as 20 percentage points if the elections were held today.
That could change, political experts say. Ms. Rousseff isn’t yet well-known, so she has more potential for attracting supporters and rising in popularity once the campaigns begin in earnest next year. A poll by Brazil’s National Industry Confederation last month showed 32% of Brazilians knew much about Ms. Rousseff, compared with 69% for Mr. Serra.
Mr. da Silva’s well-oiled political machine is already gearing up to close the gap before October’s vote. After some cosmetic surgery, Ms. Rousseff has lately been crisscrossing the nation at Mr. da Silva’s side in crisp designer outfits and a new hairstyle worthy of a prime-time television anchor.
The strategy, experts say, is to visibly link Ms. Rousseff to Mr. da Silva’s promise to use the nation’s huge potential oil wealth to fund new industries, infrastructure projects and create jobs.
Ms. Rousseff has never run for office and has yet to prove herself a great campaigner. Nor has Mr. Serra. A lanky and wan man who favors dark suits, Mr. Serra often appears tense and aloof in public, a jarring presence in a nation with an exuberant political culture.
Mr. Serra, who holds a doctorate in economics from Cornell University, may seek to present himself as an even-keeled steward of the Brazilian economy. He is likely to attack Ms. Rousseff on her government’s inability to dent endemic violent crime.
Political experts say Mr. Serra’s biggest challenge will be making sure voters view the election as a contest between him and Ms. Rousseff — rather than a contest with the ubiquitous and popular Mr. da Silva.
Write to John Lyons at john.lyons@wsj.com
Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page A9
